Scotland Independence - Effect on Englang and Scotland?

Apart from resulting in a Brexit the Brittish referendum on the EU has shown the differences in views of the Brittish people. Scottland, Northern Ireland and London all voting in majority for staying in the EU whilst Wales and England voting to leave. This has propagaded yet again in Scottland wanting to seek independence from the UK and join the EU.

David Cameron is surely regretting the choice of letting the choice of Brexit up to the Brittish people. The result of the vote is a display of the amount of people casting a fuck you vote to the EU:s bureaucracy. The detachment of the UK from the EU is bad for both entities and the referendum has similarities to the US presidential election where voters voting for Trump are acting illogically and are fed up with how the system works and demand change.

The Brittish economy has already been impacted by a lower Brittish pound which has in the short term positively affected Brittish exporters but negatively affected the Brittish people in higher domestic prices and losses in the financial market. It has also created uncertainty awaiting the outcome of the negotiations between the EU and UK. This uncertainty in turn has resulted in a higher risk premium which affects the UK borrowing power and in turn leads to a lower disposible income for the Brits. The weakening of the pound will also lead importers to higher prices which will also affect the Brittish people negatively and lead to a slowing of the UK economy.

When it comes to FDI the NIESR has estimated that the UK will suffer a loss in FDI by around -24 %. This will especially hurt Scotland due to their prior high percentage of FDI which has in turn led to a low amount of productivity, 10 % below the UK average.

Well, should Scotland leave the UK and enter into the EU? We have seen that the Brexit will negatively affect the UK and maybe even be harder on Scotland. Looking at Scottish exports, 64 % go to the UK and only 15 % to the EU. This means that Scottland leaving the UK would create a new negotiation on tariffs between the UK and Scotland. Scotland exporting 64 % of their exports to the UK will be largely affected by the outcome of these negotiations. The Scottish independence vote is also a sort of fuck you vote to the UK where both countries loose. Therefore

The UK losing Scotland from its union will result in a loss of GDP of appr. 179,196 billion pounds, this from the current UK GDP of close to 2,3 trillion pounds will still have a large negative impact on the UK economy.

Wether the Scotts choose to leave the UK or not the effect of the brexit will definitely have the largest negative impact on both countries economies. The Scottish economy with the UK as its main exporter doesn't have the same power in negotation as the UK as a whole has versus the EU. Scotland might just be stuck with its largest exporter and need the UK as a partner more than the UK needs Scotland. The Scotish independence party might just have enough influence in order to start a new referendum on Scotish independence but the outcome of this is yet to come!