Posts

Ray Dalio – New world order (2020 Stock market crash)

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Ray dalio, billionaire investor and manager of Bridgewater Associates, the worlds largest hedge fund recently came out and announced that the Coronavirus pandemic would launch a global recession, much like the 1929 market crash. He both mentioned this in a recent Ted talk and through his Linkedin profile. Dalio undertook a study, 18 months ago on the rises and declines of empires, as he was seeing unusual changes in the economy. Through this study, he concluded that we are experiencing the end of the long-term debt cycle, much like the 1930s recession which ended in 1932 with unemployment rising upwards 25%. This being through:       1)      High levels of indebtedness and low interest rates; diminishing the central banks ability to positively influence the economy.       2)      Large wealth gaps and political divisions; growing populist movements in Europe and the US.       3) ...

Scotland Independence - Effect on Englang and Scotland?

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Apart from resulting in a Brexit the Brittish referendum on the EU has shown the differences in views of the Brittish people. Scottland, Northern Ireland and London all voting in majority for staying in the EU whilst Wales and England voting to leave. This has propagaded yet again in Scottland wanting to seek independence from the UK and join the EU. David Cameron is surely regretting the choice of letting the choice of Brexit up to the Brittish people. The result of the vote is a display of the amount of people casting a fuck you vote to the EU:s bureaucracy. The detachment of the UK from the EU is bad for both entities and the referendum has similarities to the US presidential election where voters voting for Trump are acting illogically and are fed up with how the system works and demand change. The Brittish economy has already been impacted by a lower Brittish pound which has in the short term positively affected Brittish exporters but negatively affected the Brittish people in...

Rate of return - Question

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I often get the question what is an adequate rate of return on my investment? This question is impossible to answer. The average rate of return of the S&P 500 index since 1928 has been 10 %. That means that if you invested 1 dollar in the S&P index in 1928 you would have 43,900$ today. Not bad! Only problem is people are emotional and respond to stressful situations poorly. If you had invested in 1928 you would have gone through the great depression, WW2 and so on and surely taken your money out of the market which would then have affected your total outcome. So you can't surely expect a rate of return of 10 %. Whilst tinking about the rate of return you should also take into account the fact that while the ROI is going up risk is also going up. In the graph on the left the illustration of risk vs ROI is illustrated. Here while you might be getting a higher ROI your risk is also going up. For example, stocks are seen as high risk investment and have given a 10 % ROI ...

The power of habit: book review

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One of the best book reads of 2016! The stories Charles Duhigg conveys in this book makes one think about habits in a whole new different way. Book rating: 4 out of 5 stars  From Martin Luther Kings story of success against racisms to Febreezes new thinking around habits in house cleaning. There is something to learn from all these stories and Charles Durhigg explains the phenomena of habits in an exhilarating manner. The message of the book is portrayed very well in every story that this book offers and each new story shows a new form of habits. Some parts of the books are worth skimming due to repetition but most stories in this book is a worthwile read. All in all this book gets a 4 out of 5 possible stars. Message is greatly conveyed and is a book that makes you think! Doesn't get the full 5 stars due to some parts feeling repetitive. Really bring one to think about what really drives oneself and the power that advertising has on everyday life!

The most valuable asset in investing!

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The best way to become a millionaire! So everyone has read the different books about all the different ways to become a millionaire. What these books don't say is that they are full of it. You don't need to be a genius to get rich you just need 1 thing , which is the most valuable thing there is. Time ! Time doesn't just grow trees but will also grow capital and it is your most valuable asset. Lets make a demonstration of this. Imagine you have 2 alternatives: Alternative 1: Get one hundred thousand dollars now to invest. Alternative 2: Get one million dollars in 30 years time. If you look at both sums you naturally do the math one million is 10 times one hundred thousand and therefore you should take the one million but what you miss to take into account in this example is that 100 000$ in 30 years isn't still worth 100 000$ if you take into account investing the sum. The financial markets has generally given an 8 % annual return. Therefore if you calcu...

Nasdaq OMX Stockholm - monday 27th 2016

The Nasdaq OMX initially fell almost 7 % to gain back approximately 1 percentage point to nearly 6 % by 10,30. Not surprisingly Nobia leading the fall with -15 %, the kitchen supplier with Britain as one of its largest revenue source is probably the most affected listed company on the Nasdaq OMX from the Brexit referendum. The footsey 100 hardly down 1 % and the DAX that has already taken the hit on friday trading near 0. From the OMX the companies with the largest amount of sales in Britain, leading the board with Orexo and Nobia with nearly haft their revenues from Britain followed by Fagerhult and Itab shop Concept with both nearly 30 % of their revenues from the island. These stocks have been affected the largest from the secluding of Britain and the uncertainty of the upcoming deal that must be negotiated between the EU and Great Britain. Handelsbanken which has the largest asset base of the Swedish banks in Great Britain was also badly affected loosing near 10 % on monday.

Brexit not yet fact, just more uncertainty!

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          The brexit referendum came to a dramatical ending on the 23 rd of June with the brexit side winning 51,9 % to 48,1 %. This referendum resulted in a non-binding ruling from the British people to exit the European Union and the resignation of British prime minister David Cameron. This unforeseen result was met with a large negativity from the youth of Britain as they took to the streets in demonstration and petitioning for yet another referendum that has been signed by up to 3 million people. Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union must be invoked in order for Great Britain to leave the EU which will start a 2-year process of leaving the union that won’t be taken lightly. Scotland already talking of vetoing the result and talking of entering the EU on its own and secluding itself from Britain. What will happen henceforth is unknown but the effects of instability have negatively affected financial markets resulting in a loss of 2 trillio...